Moderate Wage Growth Forecast for 2026 as Labor Market Cools
U.S. employers are expected to maintain cautious hiring practices in 2026, with wage increases projected to average just 3.3%, a slight dip from 2025. The labor market's sluggish momentum reflects broader economic uncertainty, particularly in industries impacted by immigration policies.
Construction and other sectors facing labor shortages may see upward wage pressure, but most industries will likely mirror the overall trend of restrained compensation growth. This stagnation comes as employers balance stagnant demand against the risk of overstaffing amid unpredictable tariff environments.